Great Britain 2026 · Ward-Level Structural Analysis
Local elections, 7 May 2026 · Great Britain wide

The May 2026 results across
Great Britain. Coalition lines,
drawn at the ward level.

Across the 2,433 declared wards in every Great Britain council that elected in 2026, Reform vs % apprenticeship sits at r = +0.46 — still the strongest single correlation in the dataset, though softer than the GM-only +0.64 once Tyne & Wear, the West Midlands metal towns and the Essex/Kent fringe are folded in. Reform's mean ward has 6.3% apprenticeship-trained residents vs 4.0% in Green wards. Reform also tracks negatively with degree-holding (−0.43), working-from-home (−0.36), SOC 1-3 graduate occupations (−0.35), private renting (−0.31) and density (−0.26); positively with UK-born share (+0.41) and no-qualifications (+0.31). Greens win the dense, young, privately-rented inner cores — Hackney, Lewisham, Lambeth, Norwich, Manchester. LibDems sweep the high-degree commuter belts — South Cambridgeshire, Sutton, Richmond, St Albans, Cheltenham, Stockport. Conservatives hold the affluent suburban fringe — Harrow, Bromley, Wandsworth, Kensington & Chelsea, Cannock Chase. Reform takes the post-industrial periphery, with full or near-full council sweeps in Hartlepool (12/12), Wigan (24/25), Wakefield (20/21), Tameside (18/19), Dudley (21/24) and Sunderland (19/25).

Sources: 2026 results for all 128 GB councils that elected in May 2026 — sourced from each council's published declarations, and from Wikipedia per-ward {{Election box winning candidate}} rolls where councils had not yet published machine-readable results · ONS Census 2021 ward-level data (UK Data Service XLSX + NOMIS CSV): TS006 (density), TS007 (age), TS063 (occupation), TS067 (qualifications), TS054 (tenure), TS004 (country of birth), TS061 (method of travel to work), TS008 (sex), TS022 (ethnic group). ONS small-area income estimates (FY ending March 2023, "Net income before housing costs") at MSOA level, aggregated to ward via Census-2021 OA-count weighting using the ONS Open Geography Portal OA→MSOA + OA→Ward lookups — see scripts/03b_aggregate_income.py. Income covers England & Wales only; Scottish wards on this page have no income figure. Wards whose boundaries changed between Census 2021 and the May 2026 election use approximate Census mappings via the GSS ward lookup (flagged in the methodology). Manchester's Miles Platting & Newton Heath ward had not yet declared at the time of writing. Bury's Moorside ward election was cancelled (Reform candidate died; rerun expected June).
§ 1 Top correlations · all variables Pearson r · 2,433 declared GB wards
Strongest
+0.46
Reform shows a strong positive correlation with % with apprenticeships: Reform-won wards average 6.3% apprenticeship-trained residents vs 4.0% in Green-won wards. The strongest single correlation across the 2,433 GB wards.
Reform
−0.43
Reform shows a strong negative correlation with % with a Level 4+ qualification (degree): Reform-won wards average 26% degree-holders, against Green 41%, LibDem 42%, Conservative 39%.
Reform
+0.41
Reform shows a strong positive correlation with % UK-born: Reform-won wards average 89% UK-born residents vs 72% in Green-won wards — a 17-point gap.
Reform
−0.36
Reform shows a strong negative correlation with % working from home: Reform 25%, Labour 32%, Green 36%, Conservative 38%, LibDem 39%. WFH is a graduate-occupation marker.
Greens
+0.30
Greens show a moderate positive correlation with % aged 18-29: Green-won wards average 21% young adults vs 14% in Reform-won wards. The effect is softer GB-wide than in GM (+0.63) because Green wins outside Manchester/Hackney/Lewisham aren't all in young-adult cores.
Greens
+0.26
Greens show a moderate positive correlation with % private renting: Green-won wards average 29% private rent vs Reform's 16%. Inner-London Greens (Hackney, Lewisham, Lambeth) anchor the upper end.
Greens · density
+0.19
Greens show a weak positive correlation with population density: Green mean 6,524/km², Reform 2,879/km², Conservative 3,979/km². The urban-rural axis is real but noisy GB-wide — Norwich and Bristol Greens sit at much lower densities than Hackney's.
Conservative
+0.20
Conservatives show a moderate positive correlation with % in SOC 1-3 (graduate-level jobs): the Tory ward profile (n=417) carries the oldest median age (41.2), high L4+ (39%), and high SOC 1-3 (53%) — the affluent suburban fringe of London (Bromley, Harrow, Wandsworth, K&C) and the Midlands/South commuter belts.
§ 2 Top correlations per party Top 5 positive · top 5 negative

For each main party, the five strongest positive correlations and the five strongest negative correlations between a 0/1 party-win indicator and the ward's structural profile. To avoid showing the same age signal three times, only the strongest age-related variable (median age, % under 18, % 18-29, % 30-49, % 50-64, % 65+) is shown per direction. At the GB scale every main-party sample is large (Reform n=646, Labour n=532, Conservative n=417, LibDem n=355, Green n=346), so r values are statistically tight; the GB picture is also flatter than the GM picture because the same structural pattern is being measured across more heterogeneous geographies.

§ 3 Full correlation matrix All 2,433 declared GB wards · Pearson r

Each row is a structural variable; each column is the party-win indicator (1 = ward won by that party, 0 otherwise). Reform has the largest sample (n=646), followed by Labour (n=532), Conservative (n=417), LibDem (n=355) and Green (n=346) — all comfortably large enough that the GB r values are statistically tight. Independent (n=91) and Other (n=46 — a long tail of community-party labels) are too varied to show clear structural patterns. Wards whose boundaries changed between Census 2021 and the May 2026 election use approximate Census mappings via the GSS ward lookup (flagged in the methodology).

Ward variable Green Labour Reform Lib Dem Combined
Green / Reform
Sort by
Where each party wins, structurally — Great Britain 2026 wards Pearson r between a 0/1 party-win indicator and each ward's Census 2021 structural profile, across 2433 declared wards. Showing the ten variables most correlated with Reform's wins. PARTY · WARDS WON Reform n=646 Green n=346 Labour n=532 LibDem n=355 Conservative n=417 −0.6 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.6 % Apprenticeship % UK-born % White % Private rented % Other ethnic % Mixed % SOC 1–3 % WFH Income £/yr % Degree (L4+) +0.46 −0.43 Where each party wins, structurally — Great Britain 2026 wards Pearson r between a 0/1 party-win indicator and each ward's Census 2021 structural profile, across 2433 declared wards. Showing the ten variables most correlated with Green's wins. PARTY · WARDS WON Reform n=646 Green n=346 Labour n=532 LibDem n=355 Conservative n=417 −0.6 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.6 % Aged 18–29 % Private rented % Mixed % Black Pop. density % Apprenticeship Median age % Aged 65+ % Aged 50–64 % Owner-occupied +0.30 −0.25 Where each party wins, structurally — Great Britain 2026 wards Pearson r between a 0/1 party-win indicator and each ward's Census 2021 structural profile, across 2433 declared wards. Showing the ten variables most correlated with Labour's wins. PARTY · WARDS WON Reform n=646 Green n=346 Labour n=532 LibDem n=355 Conservative n=417 −0.6 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.6 % Black % Other ethnic % Mixed Pop. density % Asian Median age % Owner-occupied % Aged 65+ % UK-born % White +0.35 −0.34 Where each party wins, structurally — Great Britain 2026 wards Pearson r between a 0/1 party-win indicator and each ward's Census 2021 structural profile, across 2433 declared wards. Showing the ten variables most correlated with Lib Dem's wins. PARTY · WARDS WON Reform n=646 Green n=346 Labour n=532 LibDem n=355 Conservative n=417 −0.6 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.6 % SOC 1–3 Income £/yr % WFH % Degree (L4+) % Owner-occupied % White % Other ethnic % Black % Social rented % No qualifications +0.22 −0.26 Where each party wins, structurally — Great Britain 2026 wards Pearson r between a 0/1 party-win indicator and each ward's Census 2021 structural profile, across 2433 declared wards. Showing the ten variables most correlated with Conservative's wins. PARTY · WARDS WON Reform n=646 Green n=346 Labour n=532 LibDem n=355 Conservative n=417 −0.6 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.6 % SOC 1–3 Income £/yr % Owner-occupied % WFH Median age % Aged 65+ % Degree (L4+) % Aged 50–64 % No qualifications % Social rented +0.20 −0.24

Each view shows the ten Census variables most correlated with the selected party's wins, arranged left-to-right from most-positive r to most-negative — so the selected party's line descends by construction. Where another line climbs against that descent (clearest in the Reform / Green pair), the inversion is real signal, not an artifact of variable choice.

§ 4 Per-borough breakdown 2,434 wards · 2,433 declared

Reform won 646 of 2,433 declared wards across Great Britain — taking outright control of Hartlepool (12/12), Wigan (24/25), Wakefield (20/21), Tameside (18/19), Rochford (12/13), Redditch (8/9) and Dudley (21/24), and the largest single party in Sunderland (19/25), Halton (15/18), Plymouth (14/19), South Tyneside (14/18), Basildon (11/14) and Havant (9/12). Labour (532 wards) held inner-London — Greenwich (18/22), Redbridge (17/22), Ealing (16/24), Hammersmith & Fulham (16/21), Barking & Dagenham (14/19). LibDems (355) swept their core commuter belts: South Cambridgeshire (24/26), Sutton (18/20), Richmond upon Thames (18/18), St Albans (17/20), Cheltenham (17/20), Watford (12/12). Conservatives (417) held the affluent London fringe — Harrow (16/22), Bromley (14/22), Wandsworth (12/22), Kensington & Chelsea (12/18), Cannock Chase (12/12) — and clusters in the Home Counties. Greens (346) broke through in Hackney (16/21), Lewisham (14/19), Lambeth (13/25), Manchester (18/32), Norwich (10/13) and Leeds (11/33). The full council-by-council picture:

Borough · ward count by winning party

Manchester's Miles Platting & Newton Heath ward had not declared at the time of writing — the only undeclared ward across all 128 GB councils that elected in May 2026. Bury's Moorside ward election was cancelled in April after Reform candidate Victor Hagan died (rerun expected June) and is not counted here. A handful of multi-seat wards (e.g. Salford's Cadishead & Lower Irlam) are counted once each by winning party.

§ 5 Average ward profile All 2,433 declared GB wards · means
§ 6 All wards · 128 councils 2,434 wards · sorted by council → party → density
Method. 128 Great Britain councils held local elections on 7 May 2026; ward-level results were collected from each council's official results page where available, and from Wikipedia per-ward {{Election box winning candidate}} rolls where the council had not yet published a machine-readable result file. For each ward, the structural profile is built from ONS Census 2021 ward-level data: TS006 (density), TS007 (single-year age), TS063 (10-category occupation), TS067 (8-category qualifications, ages 16+), TS054 (9-category tenure), TS004 (12-category country of birth), TS061 (12-category travel to work), TS008 (sex), TS022 (ethnic group, detailed). Aggregations: % apprenticeship and % L4+ are share of residents 16+ (TS067 codes 3 and 5 respectively); % owned = TS054 codes 0+1+2; % social rent = codes 3+4; % private rent = codes 5+6+7 (rent-free bundled with private); % UK-born = TS004 code 1 / total; % WFH = TS061 code 1 / sum of codes 1-11 (employed denominator); % female = TS008 Female / (Female + Male); the five TS022 shares (% White, Asian, Black, Mixed, Other ethnic) are each top-level group / TS022 "All usual residents", with % Black combining the African and Caribbean sub-groups per the standard ONS 5-category presentation. Correlations are Pearson r vs a 0/1 party-win indicator across the full 2,433-ward declared sample.

Boundary mismatches. Bolton (2023 review), Stockport (2023 review), and Trafford (2023 review) all had ward boundary changes between Census 2021 and the 2026 election. Where 2026 ward names match 2021 ward boundaries, an exact GSS code lookup is used (104 of 161 new wards). Where names changed but boundaries are substantially the same, a fuzzy mapping is applied (33 wards) — e.g. Bolton's "Heaton, Lostock & Chew Moor" maps to 2021's "Heaton and Lostock". Where 2026 wards are splits or significant re-bounds of 2021 wards, an approximate proxy is used (e.g. Bolton's "Farnworth North" and "Farnworth South" both inherit the old "Farnworth" Census profile). This introduces some imprecision for these three boroughs, particularly Trafford, but doesn't materially affect the borough-level patterns. Wigan also had a 2024 boundary change handled the same way.

Coverage notes. 2,433 of 2,434 wards are declared. Manchester's Miles Platting & Newton Heath was still pending at the time of writing — the only undeclared ward across all 128 GB councils. Bury's Moorside ward election was cancelled in April 2026 after Reform candidate Victor Hagan died (rerun expected June 2026) and is not counted here. Multi-seat wards (where two or more seats were up in 2026) are counted once each by winning party. Per-ward turnout publication varies widely by council; this dataset focuses on winning party, vote share, and structural variables — turnout is preserved where the council published it.

Caveats. Independent (n=91) and Other (n=46) categories combine heterogeneous local parties (residents' associations, Workers Party of Britain, community labels, plus the long tail of single-ward minor parties) so their correlation profiles are weak by construction. The five main-party samples are all substantial (Reform n=646, Labour n=532, Conservative n=417, LibDem n=355, Green n=346), so r values across the GB dataset are statistically tight. Reform's structural correlation versus % apprenticeship is +0.46 GB-wide — softer than the GM-only +0.64, because the GB sample folds in geographies (London-fringe, the Home Counties, the South-East coast) where the apprenticeship/degree axis isn't as cleanly aligned with the Reform vote as it is across the post-industrial North.