The companion page to Winners asked which Census variables predict where each party won. This page asks where each party gained, lost, or held. Of the 213 wards with both a declared 2026 winner and a known prior party, 152 changed hands — a 71% turnover. Labour shed 112 of its 146 prior seats; Reform took 104 from a standing start; the Greens went from 5 wards to 30. The structural signal is sharp where the sample allows it: flipped-to-Reform tracks +0.64 with apprenticeships and −0.50 with degree-holding; flipped-to-Green inverts the polarity with +0.67 with under-29s, +0.65 with private renters, +0.59 with density — gains in the dense, young, renter-heavy inner cores. The before/after cards in §3 show how each party's *surviving* coalition shifted demographically (Labour's 34 remaining wards skew slightly more graduate / SOC1-3; Greens' 30 are vastly denser and more renter-heavy than their 2022 footprint). Smaller parties (LibDem 5 flips, Other 6, Labour 3 gains, Conservative 3, Independent 4) sit too close to the noise floor to read off correlation cards cleanly.
Read each column as: "if a ward flipped to this party, how does each Census variable correlate with that flip?" Positive r in green, negative in red, opacity scaled to |r|. Cells with — are below the n=3 minimum for Pearson.
Each card shows how a party's structural footprint shifted between the prior and 2026 elections. Reform and Other have no 2022 baseline (Reform UK didn't win any GM ward in 2022; "Other" is a 2026 catch-all for Workers Party / Oldham Group / etc.) so their cards show 2026 means only. Δ for percentages is in percentage points; for density it's residents/km²; for age it's years. Bold positive Δ in green, bold negative in red — colour intensity scales with magnitude relative to typical inter-party spread.
"Prior" is the top-of-poll party the last time the seat was contested (2022 for thirds boroughs, 2021 for Salford all-out). flip = ward changed party hands; hold = same party as before; no prior = boundary change, no clean predecessor. ≈ next to a ward name marks an approximate prior mapping.